Outlook 2020

The trade calendar for 2020 is top-heavy, with the first stage of the U.S.-Japan Agreement set to take effect on Jan. 1 and a phase-one U.S.-China deal slated to be signed shortly thereafter. And the Senate Finance Committee is likely to approve the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement on Jan. 7, setting the stage for the full Senate to vote on the trade pact within 15 session days. A seminal moment for the World Trade Organization, meanwhile, come at midyear, when trade ministers...

Given the president’s penchant for pugilism, 2020 may shape up to be a year of trade fights, not deals, the Peterson Institute’s Chad Bown says. “It’s challenging to imagine President Trump changing tactics away from what seems to have been his approach politically -- both in 2016 during the campaign and also as president -- which is: Conflict is good for me. Creating conflict is good for me,” Bown said in an interview with Inside U.S. Trade. “It would...

With a World Trade Organization ministerial meeting and a paralyzed WTO Appellate Body, 2020 will be a vital inflection point for the rules-based international trading system, according to an influential analyst and former U.S. trade official. “I do think this is the year in which you’re really going to see whether or not we’re going to continue to have a rules-based system or not,” Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow Jennifer Hillman said in an interview with Inside U.S. Trade....

With the next World Trade Organization ministerial conference just six months away, many members are still looking to the U.S. for leadership, hoping it will push, drag, cajole, bargain or “bang some heads together” to get negotiations over the finish line, Geneva sources said. But some in Geneva are worried the Trump administration isn’t interested in playing its historical lead role behind the scenes, especially leading up to the ministerial in June, Geneva sources told Inside U.S. Trade . In...

Democrats one day will regret voting in favor of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement when their constituents realize the deal is not fundamentally better for U.S. workers than NAFTA was, Rep. Andy Levin (D-MI) said last week in an interview with Inside U.S. Trade . To make USMCA more palatable for Democrats, a group of lawmakers appointed by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) negotiated changes to the trade deal with the Trump administration, giving the labor movement a seat at the table...