Fed research says tariffs may bring short-term inflation cuts, long-term rise

A new “economic letter” from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco says tariff hikes are likely to raise unemployment and lower inflation in the short term with both effects reversing over time, leading to price increases along with an eventual return to the original employment level, though it warns against directly applying that model to President Trump’s “unprecedented” tariff policies. The Nov. 24 letter , part of a series published by the San Francisco Fed’s economic research department to...